Defer persistence of rollout file (#11028)

- Defer rollout persistence for fresh threads (`InitialHistory::New`):
keep rollout events in memory and only materialize rollout file + state
DB row on first `EventMsg::UserMessage`.
- Keep precomputed rollout path available before materialization.
- Change `thread/start` to build thread response from live config
snapshot and optional precomputed path.
- Improve pre-materialization behavior in app-server/TUI: clearer
invalid-request errors for file-backed ops and a friendlier `/fork` “not
ready yet” UX.
- Update tests to match deferred semantics across
start/read/archive/unarchive/fork/resume/review flows.
- Improved resilience of user_shell test, which should be unrelated to
this change but must be affected by timing changes

For Reviewers:
* The primary change is in recorder.rs
* Most of the other changes were to fix up broken assumptions in
existing tests

Testing:
* Manually tested CLI
* Exercised app server paths by manually running IDE Extension with
rebuilt CLI binary
* Only user-visible change is that `/fork` in TUI generates visible
error if used prior to first turn

codex-rs/app-server/tests/suite/v2/thread_fork.rs

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ use app_test_support::McpProcess;
 use app_test_support::create_fake_rollout;
 use app_test_support::create_mock_responses_server_repeating_assistant;
 use app_test_support::to_response;
+use codex_app_server_protocol::JSONRPCError;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::JSONRPCNotification;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::JSONRPCResponse;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::RequestId;
@@ -10,6 +11,8 @@ use codex_app_server_protocol::SessionSource;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::ThreadForkParams;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::ThreadForkResponse;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::ThreadItem;
+use codex_app_server_protocol::ThreadStartParams;
+use codex_app_server_protocol::ThreadStartResponse;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::ThreadStartedNotification;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::TurnStatus;
 use codex_app_server_protocol::UserInput;
@@ -117,6 +120,51 @@ async fn thread_fork_creates_new_thread_and_emits_started() -> Result<()> {
     Ok(())
 }
 
+#[tokio::test]
+async fn thread_fork_rejects_unmaterialized_thread() -> Result<()> {
+    let server = create_mock_responses_server_repeating_assistant("Done").await;
+    let codex_home = TempDir::new()?;
+    create_config_toml(codex_home.path(), &server.uri())?;
+
+    let mut mcp = McpProcess::new(codex_home.path()).await?;
+    timeout(DEFAULT_READ_TIMEOUT, mcp.initialize()).await??;
+
+    let start_id = mcp
+        .send_thread_start_request(ThreadStartParams {
+            model: Some("mock-model".to_string()),
+            ..Default::default()
+        })
+        .await?;
+    let start_resp: JSONRPCResponse = timeout(
+        DEFAULT_READ_TIMEOUT,
+        mcp.read_stream_until_response_message(RequestId::Integer(start_id)),
+    )
+    .await??;
+    let ThreadStartResponse { thread, .. } = to_response::<ThreadStartResponse>(start_resp)?;
+
+    let fork_id = mcp
+        .send_thread_fork_request(ThreadForkParams {
+            thread_id: thread.id,
+            ..Default::default()
+        })
+        .await?;
+    let fork_err: JSONRPCError = timeout(
+        DEFAULT_READ_TIMEOUT,
+        mcp.read_stream_until_error_message(RequestId::Integer(fork_id)),
+    )
+    .await??;
+    assert!(
+        fork_err
+            .error
+            .message
+            .contains("no rollout found for thread id"),
+        "unexpected fork error: {}",
+        fork_err.error.message
+    );
+
+    Ok(())
+}
+
 // Helper to create a config.toml pointing at the mock model server.
 fn create_config_toml(codex_home: &Path, server_uri: &str) -> std::io::Result<()> {
     let config_toml = codex_home.join("config.toml");